← Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional 12/1/2024 10 AM Start Time
decks
3
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-6-4
overall winrate
52.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1464
· median 1444
· range 1425–1525
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1248
Q3 1424
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.9% | -2.4 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
